Now in addition to Cook’s Political Report and others, Congressional Quarterly is jumping on that band wagon.
CQ Politics today is changing the race ratings in 14 congressional districts in 10 states to reflect changing political circumstances that mean brighter prospects for the Democrats, who are expected to augment their 236-199 majority in the U.S. House in the November elections.
Twelve of the 14 race rating changes favor the Democrats, compared to two that favor Republicans, who are trying to limit their losses this year after suffering a net loss of 30 House seats in the 2006 election.
CQ Politics bases its race ratings changes on a variety of factors, including polling and fundraising figures, demographic and political data and conversations with political analysts and party officials. The race ratings are better described as snapshots than as election predictions, and they are subject to change at any time.
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• West Virginia’s 2nd(New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored). Four-term Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is well-liked and has some centrist leanings, but her election victories also have been aided by underfunded or flawed Democratic opponents. She may face her toughest challenge yet from Anne Barth, a longtime West Virginia-based aide to Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd who entered the race after Democratic state Sen. John Unger withdrew just before the January candidate filing deadline. With $636,000 in campaign receipts through the end of June, Barth has already raised more than 2006 Democratic nominee Mike Callaghan raised for the duration of a campaign in which he won 43 percent of the vote against Capito.
Double-talking Shelley Moore Capito
Republicans are dropping money on Capito that was raised to expand the Republican majority and in their desperation are using it to protect an incumbent.
My guess is Capito has seen internal polling that is panicking her. She’s been too afraid to meet with constituents to answer their questions because she’s so out of touch with the people of WV-02 she doesn’t know what to say to them.
Capito has painted herself into a corner. She clearly wants to distance herself from the wildly unpopular George W. Bush so that she doesn’t lose “independents” yet at the same time she can’t distance herself too publicly without alienating the mouth-breathing part of her base that still supports him. The same with the Iraq war. At the end of the 2006 campaign, she signalled she was for withdrawing the troops from Iraq just as she expected the Iraq Study Group report to recommend, but then she reversed herself again on the issue, proving she’s no independent. Her “centrist” leanings fail to show on key votes that matter.
Meanwhile Barth is one of the most attractive – in many ways – candidates we’ve ever had run for WV-02. Her experience at getting the job done for Byrd in West Virginia would be a great asset in the House of Representatives, particularly in a district where Capito has consistently been in the the bottom half of the power rankings at the nonpartisan Congress.org. Even when the Republicans held the majority, Democrats Nick Rahall and Alan Mollohan had much higher ratings for effectiveness than Capito.
This election is simple if we want to put someone in to get the job done for us. Anne can. Capito can’t.